Inspired largely by Miguel Guhlin's post about penguins and melting icebergs, I take this opportunity to once again combine my interests in ed. policy/leadership issues and sports. A few months ago, I was reading a nearly annual story by Gregg Easterbrook on ESPN.com's Page 2 about punting in football. As background, Easterbrook has been inspired by a study conducted by a UC-Berkeley economist named David Romer that demonstrates that football teams would actually win more games if they mostly eschewed punting on 4th down (for the 17 or so non-football fans out there, if a team fails to advance the ball 10 yards in 4 plays, they turn the ball over to the other team. So, if after 3 plays they think they are unlikely to gain the 10th yard or more on a 4th play, they punt the ball to the other team on the assumption that doing so will give the other team the ball, but in significantly worse position on the field). Just looking at situations where teams face a 4th down with 1 yard to go ("4th and 1" in football lingo), teams succeed 75% of the time. So, Easterbrook claims, "[i]f you face fourth-and-1 four times and punt all four times, your opponent will score once more than it otherwise would have. If you go for it all four times, you will score once more than you otherwise would have." Yet, teams consistently punt the ball away on 4th and 1.
Easterbrook has revised Romer's strategy in favor of a fairly complicated "rarely punt" orientation which he outlines in the article. When his approach was tested/simulated, the results were astounding.
"Bottom line: avoiding punts added an average of one point to a team's per-game scoring, without adding any points to its opponents' average scoring. Teams avoiding punting became 5 percent more likely to win -- statistically significant owing to the thousands of tries...A 5 percent improvement in victory likelihood translates into one additional victory per 20 games, or just shy of one extra win per NFL season."
One win per season can make the difference between making the playoffs or not; it can mean millions of dollars in extra revenue. So, why do teams continue to punt the way they do? Easterbrook offers two reasons: "First, 'because that's what we always do.' Second, because if coaches order fourth-down tries that fail, they will be blamed, whereas if coaches order punts, the players will be blamed for the loss."
What does this all have to do with penguins and melting icebergs? Well, I won't touch the idea of coaches pushing the blame onto the players (there's a politically tricky analogy to education I don't want to deal with, at least not now). But, as Miguel writes, "Unfortunately, one of the challenges [in education] is overcoming the 'NoNo' penguins who want to keep doing things the way they have always done things."
So, the (eternal) question is how to lead "NoNo" people out of the status quo. More on that in a subsequent post. For now, though, what "punting" examples can you think of in your schools/districts? Perhaps by collectively reflecting on these, we can all think about the changes we can make that will improve the outcomes for our teams.
Recent Comments